Polish employers expect a modest hiring pace for the next three months: ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

Polish employers expect a modest hiring pace for the next three months: ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

Employers in Poland are expecting the hiring pace to remain moderate through the July-September time frame. The strongest labor markets are expected in the Transport, Storage & Communications, the Manufacturing and the Mining & Quarrying sectors. In a regional analysis, South-West employers report the strongest hiring plans, the weakest of the six regional Outlooks are reported in the North.

Warsaw, Poland, 11 June 2019 – Polish employers report conservative hiring intentions for third quarter 2019 according to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey released today by ManpowerGroup in Poland. While 14% of employers anticipate an increase in payrolls, 3% forecast a decrease and 81% expect no change, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +11%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +9%. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter and decline by 4 percentage points in comparison with this time one year ago.

South-West employers show the strongest hiring intentions

Employers in all six regions anticipate job gains in the forthcoming quarter. The strongest labor market is forecast for the South-West where the Net Employment Outlook is +15%. Elsewhere, moderate hiring prospects are reported in five regions with Outlooks of +9% in the North-West and +8% in the South. East and Central employers anticipate some hiring activity, reporting Outlooks of +7% in both sectors, while the weakest labor market is expected in the North where the Outlook stands at +5%.

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions strengthen in three regions. The slight increase of 3 and 2 percentage points are reported in the South-West and in the North-West, respectively. Elsewhere, hiring plans are weaker in three regions. In both the East and Central Poland outlooks are 3 percentage points weaker, 2 percentage points decrease is reported in the South.

Hiring prospects decline in five regions when compared with this time one year ago. The most notable decreases of 8 percentage points are reported in both the North and the East. The Outlook shows a 2 percentage points strengthening in the South-West.

Transport, Storage & Communications is the strongest of Poland’s 10 industry sectors

Employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors expect to add to payrolls in the coming quarter. The Transport, Storage & Communications sector employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a favorable Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Elsewhere, the Manufacturing sector employers forecast steady job gains with an Outlook of +13%, and Outlooks stand at +12% and +11% for the Mining & Quarrying sector and the Construction sector, respectively. Meanwhile, the Restaurants & Hotels sector employers anticipate a flat labor market, reporting an Outlook of +1%. However, the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector employers forecast reserved hiring prospects with an Outlook of -1%.

Hiring prospects strengthen in four of the 10 industry sectors when compared with the first quarter of 2019. The most noteworthy increase of 8 and 5 percentage points are reported in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector and the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector, respectively. Elsewhere, Outlooks decline in four sectors, with the most downbeat decrease of 8 and 7 percentage points in the Manufacturing sector and the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector, respectively.

When compared with this time one year ago, Outlooks decline in seven of the 10 industry sectors. The Restaurants & Hotels sector employers report considerably weaker hiring prospects, decreasing by 13 percentage points, while both the Manufacturing and the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector Outlooks decline 12 percentage points. Meanwhile, both the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing and the Transport, Storage & Communications sectors report an improvement of 7 percentage points.

Organization size comparisons

Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees, and Large businesses have 250 or more employees. Workforce gains are anticipated in three of the four organization size categories during the upcoming quarter. Large employers forecast solid hiring activity with a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. Elsewhere, mild payroll gains are expected by Medium employers with an Outlook of +8% while Small employers report an Outlook of +5%. However, Micro employers forecast a flat labor market with an Outlook of 0%.

EMEA forecast mixed

Employers in 25 of the 26 EMEA countries surveyed expect to increase payrolls through the July-September time frame. For the second consecutive quarter, Croatian[1] employers report the strongest hiring prospects in the region for the upcoming quarter, while the weakest hiring intentions are reported in Hungary, Italy, and Spain.

The ManpowerGroup report is available free of charge to the public and can be downloaded from www.manpowergroup.pl. Results for all 44 countries can be viewed in the new interactive Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Explorer tool at http://manpowergroup.com/meos.