ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2020

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2020:
Job seekers in Poland can expect the weakest labor market in 12 years 

·      Employers report the weakest employment prospects since survey began in 2008. 

·      Employers in all seven Polish industry sectors forecast a decrease in payrolls during the coming quarter, with the weakest Outlooks reported in two sectors – the Restaurants & Hotels 

·      sector and the Manufacturing sector. 

·      Employers in two regions – the East and the South-West – expect job gains during the upcoming quarter, but hiring prospects in the remaining four regions – Central Poland, the North, the North-West, and the South – are the weakest reported since the survey began. 

·      Only 25% of employers surveyed expect to be back to pre-COVID-19 staff levels within the next year. 

Warsaw, Poland, 9 June 2020 – Polish companies report the weakest labor market since the survey began 12 years ago during the next three months. With 6% of employers expecting to increase payrolls, 11% anticipating a decrease, and 72% forecasting no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook (NEO) is -5%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at -6%. Hiring plans declined by 7 percentage points when compared with the previous quarter and by 16 percentage points in comparison with the same period last year. 

Exceptionally, in the current edition of the survey, companies were also asked about how they assess the chances of returning to pre-pandemic employment. 25% of companies believe that this will happen during the next year, while 2% say that it will take more than a year. More than half of the companies forecast that they will never be able to return to the number of employees from before Covid-19. 

The East and the South-West are green islands on the Polish map 

Employers in two of the six regions expect to grow payrolls during the third quarter of 2020. East employers anticipate the strongest labor market, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +6%. Employers in the South-West report modest hiring intentions with an Outlook of +5%. Meanwhile, hiring prospects are the most gloomy in the Central and in the South with Outlooks of -11% for both. The muted labor market is reported by employers in the North (-10%) and the North-West (-8%). 

Hiring prospects weaken in five of the six regions when compared with the previous quarter. The most noteworthy decline of 13 percentage points is reported in the Central and in the South. However, East employers report a slight improvement of 1 percentage points. In a year-over-year comparison, hiring intentions decline in all six regions. The most considerable decrease of 23 percentage points is reported in the South, while the Outlook for the Central and the North-West is 19 percentage points weaker. Hiring plans slightly decline by 2 percentage points in the East. 

Employers in all seven Polish industry sectors forecast a decrease in payrolls during the coming quarter. The weakest Outlook of -29% is reported in the Restaurants & Hotels sector, which is the most gloomy hiring intention for this sector since the survey began reported. Disappointing hiring prospects are reported in the Manufacturing sector with a Net Employment Outlook of -6%, and in three sectors – the Construction sector, the Other Production, and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, where Outlooks stand at -5%. Elsewhere, the Other Services and the Finance & Business Services employers report slumping hiring intentions with Outlooks of -1%. 

Hiring plans weaken in all seven industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. The most considerable decline of 28 percentage points is reported by Restaurants & Hotels sector employers. Outlooks are 10 percentage points weaker in the Manufacturing sector and 8 points in the Constructions sector. The moderate decrease by 4 percentage points was reported in the Other Production and by 5 percentage points in the Other Services sector. When compared with this time one year ago, in all seven sectors a decrease was noted at least by 10 percentage points. The most notable drop by 30 percentage points was reported in the Restaurants & Hotels sector. Disappointing decrease of 22 percentage points is reported also in the Manufacturing sector. 

Retreat in company forecasts − a micro-size organization the most stable 

Workforce gains are forecast in one of the four organization size categories in the next three months, with an Outlook of +1% in the Micro size category. Large and small employers report downbeat hiring prospects with a Net Employment Outlook of -6% and -7% respectively, while Medium companies report dim hiring plans with an Outlook of -12%. 

In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, Micro employers remain relatively stable. However, Large companies report the most considerable decrease by 14 percentage points, while an Outlook declines by 11 and by 8 for Medium and Small companies. Large and Medium-size employers report considerably weaker Outlooks when compared with this time one year ago, declining by 30 and 23 percentage points, respectively. Elsewhere, Micro employers report stable hiring intentions. 

Declines in forecasts from EMEA companies 

More than 12,500 employers in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region were surveyed by ManpowerGroup on their hiring plans for the third quarter of 2020. Employers in 24 of 26 countries expect to reduce payrolls, while workforce gains are anticipated in two – Croatia (+9%) and Germany (+1%). The weakest hiring paces report employers in South Africa (-17%), in Slovakia (-15%) and Romania (+14%). 

The ManpowerGroup report is available free of charge to the public and can be downloaded from www.manpowergroup.pl. Results for all 43 countries can be viewed in the new interactive Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Explorer tool at http://manpowergroup.com/meos.