ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2020: Polish companies expect modest hiring pace

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2020:
Polish companies expect modest hiring pace

  • Polish employers report the moderate hiring pace to continue in the next three months, although Outlook is the weakest in two years.
  • The strongest of 10 industry sectors Outlooks reported include Construction, Manufacturing and Electricity, Gas & Water Supply.
  • Of the six Polish regions, employers in the East and in the North-West anticipate the strongest hiring pace.

Warsaw, Poland, 10 December 2019 – Reporting a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +7%, employers in Poland anticipate the weakest hiring pace in two years during the next three months, with 6% of employers anticipating an increase in payrolls, 3% forecasting a decrease and 86% expecting no change. In comparison with the final quarter of 2019, Outlooks improve in three sectors but weaken in seven, and hiring prospects decline in eight sectors when compared with this time one year ago.

The East forecasts the highest number of job offers

Employers expect to increase payrolls in all six regions during the first quarter of 2020. East employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a steady Net Employment Outlook of +12%, and cautiously hiring activity is also forecast for the North-West, where the Outlook is +9%. Elsewhere, some job gains are anticipated in the South and the North with Outlooks of +6%. The weakest hiring plans are reported by employers in the Central and in the South-West with Outlooks of +5%.

Hiring plans strengthen in three of the six regions when compared with the previous quarter. Slightly improvement of 3 percentage points is reported in the East and in the North. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in two regions, in the North-West, and in Central Poland. Outlooks decline by 11 percentage points in the South-West and by 7 percentage points in the South.

Employers in four of the six regions report weaker hiring prospects when compared with this time one year ago. In the South-West employers report a considerable decline of 11 percentage points, while the Outlook for the South is 9 percentage points weaker. Elsewhere, decreases of 6 and 3 percentage points are reported for the Central region and the East, respectively. However, hiring plans in the North-West and in the East are relatively stable.

Construction and Manufacturing sectors report the strongest Q1 2020 Outlooks

Employers anticipate payroll gains in all 10 industry sectors during the January-March time frame. Construction sector employers report the strongest hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Elsewhere, a steady hiring pace is forecast for the Manufacturing sector with an Outlook of +11%. An Outlook of +8% is reported in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector, while the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Transport, Storage & Communications sector Outlooks stand at +7% respectively. Meanwhile, the weakest labor market is anticipated in the Restaurants & Hotels sector with an Outlook of +2%.

In a quarter-over-quarter comparison, hiring plans decline in seven of the 10 industry sectors. The Minning & Quarrying sector employers report the most noteworthy decrease of 5 percentage points, while Outlooks are 4 percentage points weaker in both the Manufacturing sector and in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector. However, hiring prospects strengthened in three sectors, most notably by 3 percentage points in the Construction sector and by 2 percentage points in both the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector and in the Finance & Business Services sector.

Hiring intentions weaken in eight of the 10 industry sectors when compared with this time one year ago. Transport, Storage & Communication sector employers report a considerable decrease of 11 percentage points, while the Manufacturing sector Outlook declines by 10 percentage points. Meanwhile, improvements of 6 and 1 percentage points are reported for the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector and the Construction sector, respectively.

Large companies report the strongest recruitment forecasts

Job gains are expected in all four organization size categories during the upcoming quarter. Large employers report favorable hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +14%, while conservative hiring intentions are reflected in the Outlook of +9% reported by Medium employers. Meanwhile, Small- and Micro-size employers forecast limited hiring activities, reporting Outlooks of +4% and +2% respectively.

In comparison with the previous quarter, hiring plans improve by 2 percentage points for Small employers, but Large employers report a decline of 9 percentage points and Medium employers of 3 percentage points. Elsewhere, Outlooks remain relatively stable for the Micro--size category.

Hiring intentions for Large employers are 17 percentage points weaker when compared with this time one year ago, and Outlooks decline by 3 percentage points in the Micro- and by 2 percentage points in the Medium-size categories. However, Small employers report no year-over-year change.

EMEA comparisons

For the January to March 2020 period, ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 21,000 employers in 26 Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region countries about their hiring intentions. Employers in all 26 EMEA countries expect to grow payrolls in the coming quarter. The highest forecasts indicate employers in Greece (+25%), Romania (+14%) as well as in Turkey (+10%) and Norway (+10%). The weakest forecasts are in Italy (+1%) and in Spain (+1%). On a quarterly basis, forecasts decline in 12 countries, most notably in Slovenia, where the Outlook is 8 percentage points lower. Recruitment plans are stronger in 10 countries, and the biggest difference reported in Greece (up 7 percentage points). In a year on year comparison, forecasts are lower in 13 markets and higher in 8. Considering the data for countries neighboring Poland, in Germany and in the Czech Republic employers report Outlooks of +4%and in Slovakia +3%.