ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey: Polish employers report the most optimistic forecast in nearly 8 years

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 2018 released today by ManpowerGroup in Poland identifies hopeful hiring intensions of Polish employers. With 18% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 3% forecasting a decrease and 77% anticipating no change. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +13%. When compared with 3Q 2017, the Outlook is 5 percentage point stronger, while employers report relatively stable hiring prospects quarter-over-quarter.

− With each quarter, we are observing more and more optimistic employment forecasts declared by Polish employers. This is the effect of the ever-increasing stability of the labor market, which is supported by the rapid pace of the economy's development and the good macroeconomic data resulting from it – said Iwona Janas, Country Manager ManpowerGroup in Poland. − Employers from the Manufacturing sector are anticipating the strongest level of hiring activity in the upcoming quarter. Polish data on employment in this sector are growing against the background of Europe and the forecast declared by Polish employers is among the most optimistic across the 26 analyzed markets from the region of Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The good streak on the Polish labor market will also continue in the other analyzed sectors. Although the forecast for Poland is the strongest in nearly 8 years, Polish employers are still struggling with the problem of talent shortage and, consequently, vacancies. Access to a quality stream of human capital is essential to the competitiveness of enterprises. – adds Iwona Janas.

Manufacturing industry on the top

Payroll gains are anticipated in all 10 industry sectors during the July-September period. Manufacturing sector employers report the strongest hiring prospects with a healthy Net Employment Outlook of +23%. Elsewhere, a steady hiring pace is forecast for the Construction and the Mining & Quarrying sector with an Outlook of +16% respectively, while an Outlook stand at +14% in the Restaurants & Hotels sector.

Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply and the Finance & Business Services with an Outlook of +10% respectively, and in the Transport, Storage & Communication sector, where the Outlook is +9%. The weakest hiring prospects report employers in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector and the Public & Social where Outlooks stand at +3% respectively.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions strengthen in four of the 10 industry sectors, most notably by 5 percentage points in the Mining & Quarrying sector. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers report an improvement of 4 percentage points while the Outlook for the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sector and the Construction is 3 and 2 percentage points stronger respectively. Meanwhile, Outlooks weaken in five sectors, including the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector where employers report a slight decline of 3 percentage points.

Hiring prospects weaken in three of the 10 industry sectors when compared with the third quarter of 2017. Decreases of 4 percentage points is reported in the Wholesale & Retail Trade, while the Outlook for the Construction and the Public & Social sector is 1 percentage points weaker. Elsewhere, hiring plans improve in five sectors. Manufacturing sector employers report the most noteworthy increase of 18 percentage points while Outlooks are 10 percentage points stronger in the Electricity, Gas & Water Supply, the Finance & Business Services and the Mining & Quarrying.

Employers in the North report the most optimistic Outlook

Employers in all six regions expect to grow staffing levels during the coming quarter. The strongest labor market anticipated in the North, where the Net Employment Outlook of +15% is the strongest in more than nine years. Employers in the East and in the South-West also expect steady job gains, reporting an Outlook of +14%.The weakest regional Outlooks of +9% are reported in the Central and in the South.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects improve in 4 of the 6 sectors. Employers in the East, the North and the North-West report slight increase of 3 percentage points. However, hiring intensions weaken in the Central and the South of 3 percentage points.

Year-over-year, hiring intentions strengthen in 5 of the 6 sectors. A considerable increase of 11 percentage points is reported in the North, while employers report an improvement of 9 percentage points in the East. Elsewhere, hiring intensions are 8 percentage points stronger in the North-West, and improve by 4 percentage points in the South-West.

Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro, Small, Medium and Large businesses. Employers in all four organization size categories expect to increase staffing levels during the coming quarter. The strongest hiring prospects are reported by Large employers with a Net Employment Outlook of +26%, while Outlooks stand at +13% in the Medium-size categories, at +5% in the Small, and also at +7% in the Micro-size.

Japan and Taiwan with the strongest hiring plans

ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 60,000 employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity in 3Q 2018. The third-quarter research reveals that job gains are expected in 43 of 44 countries and territories during the July-September time frame. Third-quarter hiring plans strengthen in 19 of 44 countries and territories when compared with the April-June time frame, are unchanged in seven, and weaken in 18. When compared with the same period last year, outlooks improve in 24 of the 43 countries and territories, are unchanged in seven, and decline in 12.* The strongest Net Employment Outlooks are reported by employers in Japan (+26%), Croatia (+26%*), Taiwan (+24%), Hungary (+19%) and United States (+18%), while employers in Italy (-2%), Panama (+2%) and Spain (+3%) report the weakest hiring plans. 

* Croatia’s data is not seasonally adjusted.

The ManpowerGroup report is available free of charge to the public and can be downloaded from www.manpowergroup.pl. Results for all 44 countries can be viewed in the new interactive Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Explorer tool at http://manpowergroup.com/meos.

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